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ECONOMY: Growth Cooled Recently
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Growth Cooled Recently
By Anthony

456762464      根据我国国家统计局公布的数据显示,11月份我国工业产值同比增长6.1%,低于10月份的6.2%,但预测增量为6.0%,所以依然比预计增长值要高。中国固定资产投资增速也从1 - 10月份的7.3%放缓至11月的7.2%。

      随着我国北方正式进入11月中旬的采暖季节,政府对有大气污染的工厂实行了更严格的规定,加强了对冬季烟霾的处理力度,要求钢厂、冶炼厂和对大气有污染的生产企业减产或停产。 1 - 11月新开工面积同比增长6.9%,但同期房地产投资同比下降了7.5%。此外,1 - 11月私人投资增长放缓至5.7%。在零售业绩方面,受到11月11日“光棍节”购物节的影响,当日销售额高达382.5亿美元,与去年11月份零售额相比,同比增长了10.2%。据国家统计局数据显示,今年前十个月,工业利润总额较2016年同期上升23.3%,城镇固定资产投资大幅降低,1 - 11月份与上年同期相比上涨7.2%。国企投资同比增长11.0%,超过私企投资增长5.7%。今年前11个月,私营部门投资占总投资额的60.5%。最后,在大家普遍关注的房地产市场方面,1 - 11月份全年房地产投资总额同比增长7.5%,增幅比1 - 10月份回落0.3个百分点。

BT 201801 Economy 01The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) raised interest rates just after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Economists said they were surprised by the move, but the fact that it was only five basis points suggests that it was insignificant enough to have a negligible affect on the markets. Analysts said the PBOC rate hikes, widely seen as a backdoor approach that avoids the need to raise benchmark policy rates, will not impede activity though they signaled a commitment by authorities to continue curbing leverage. The PBOC increased rates on reverse repurchase agreements, or reverse repos, used for open market operations by 5 basis points for the 7-day and 28-day tenors. It also increased rates on its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) by 5 basis points.

BT 201801 Economy 01The National Bureau of Statistics data release showed that the industrial output was up to 6.1% in November year-on-year, versus forecasts for an increase of 6.0%, but below the 6.2% gain in October. China’s fixed-asset investment growth also slowed to 7.2% in the January-November period, from the 7.3% expansion in the January-October months.

BT 201801 Economy 02Growth has been cooling in recently, however, hurt by higher borrowing costs while tighter rules on polluting factories have crimped production. As northern China officially entered the heating season in mid-November, the government has also stepped up efforts to address winter smog, ordering many steel mills, smelters and factories to curtail or halt production. New construction start-ups measured by floor area accelerated 6.9% in January-November, though property investment slowed to 7.5% on-year in that period, from a 7.8% gain over the first 10 months of 2017.

BT 201801 Economy 03Recent data also showed that growth of private investment slowed a touch to 5.7% in January-November. Retail sales gained by 10.2% in November on-year, just above the prior month, and were most likely boosted by China’s annual 24-hour shopping binge on November 11th, known as Singles’ Day, when sales hit $38.25 billion, thus exceeding combined revenue for Black Friday and Cyber Monday in the United States.

china mining productionOutput in the mining sector fell by 1.7% year-on-year, offset by manufacturing output and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water which increased by 6.8% and 4.5% respectively, according to the NBS. In the first ten months of the year, total industrial profits rose by 23.3% as compared to the same period in 2016, partially reflecting government attempts to remove overcapacity in some industrial sectors.

Chinas industrial profits up 23.3 in first ten monthsThe NBS claimed that they grew by 10.2% over the year, up from 10% in October. The result was in line with expectations. Over the same period, online retail sales jumped by 32.4%, 6.2 percentage points higher than the same month a year earlier. Like industrial output, urban fixed asset investment also decelerated sharply on the back of government restrictions, rising by 7.2% between January and November as compared to the same period a year earlier.

That was down on the 7.3% annual increase reported in the first 10 months of the year but in line with economist’s forecasts. Investment by government firms increased by 11.0% over the same period, outpacing growth in private investment which grew by a smaller 5.7%. Private sector investment accounted for 60.5% of total investment over the first 11 months of the year.

Chinas property investment up 7.5 in first 11 monthsHelping to explain the deceleration in the headline growth rate, total annual real estate investment grew by 7.5% between January and November, 0.3 percentage points lower than in the first ten months of the year. In the end, financial markets did not react to any of the figures or the raising of interest rates.

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