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REAL ESTATE: China 12, China’s cities go global
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China 12: China’s cities go global
中国12强:全球格局下的中国城市

By Lesley Chai, Assistant Manager, JLL Research
nankai tianjin bridge      在过去的十多年中,仲量联行(JLL)持续关注着我国各大城市的房地产市场发展趋势,并基于自身专业知识为大众提供了一系列的相关报告。今年四月,仲量联行发布了中国城市系列研究的最新报告《中国12强:全球格局下的中国城市》,这也是该系列的第五份报告,重点分析了中国大陆领先城市的未来竞争力。此次,仲量联行不仅考量了城市规模、财富、经济增长率和连通性等"传统"指标,还独具创新地加入了城市"未来竞争力"的评估指标,其中包括人才、创新、宜居性和房地产市场透明度等在内的多项类别。

      在这12个城市中,北京和上海在"传统"和"未来竞争力"指标上都占据主导地位,是全球城市挑战者。二者凭借庞大的规模及高度集中的财富,在众多排名中都占据榜首。北京在教育、创新和"新一代"企业方面的表现优于上海,而上海则在其优越的宜居性、环境、与周边城市的融合度以及高度活跃的商业服务行业方面表现优异。 北京和上海在未来五年内将跻身全球最具影响力的全球城市。


      深圳和广州作为中国大陆的"创业型城市",在中国的12个重点城市中同样举足轻重。这两个城市在生活质量、连通性和人才储备等领域都展现出强劲实力,广州在传统指标上成绩突出,而有着"中国硅谷"之称的深圳在创新创业方面吸引了大量国内顶尖人才,这不仅大力推动了深圳的发展,更使这个城市在多项衡量指标上迎头追赶北京和上海,实力可观。


      报告中上榜的其余八个城市为杭州、南京、苏州、武汉、天津、成都、重庆和西安。其中前四个城市被归类为中国的"驱动型城市",它们与全球制造业和产业发展有着紧密的联系。后四个城市——天津、成都、重庆和西安都是富有活力的区域龙头经济体和经济增长源。这些城市在传统指标上表现很好,但随着中国的经济模式不断向价值链上游移动,这些城市需要通过培养和留住人才、培育"新一代"企业等举措来增强其未来竞争力,从而实现更长期的发展。


      天津市政府已经通过开放的户口政策来吸引人才落户天津地区。与此同时,不断完善的基础设施也在改变着这座城市的面貌,新开通地铁线路、公路方便了市民生活。教育方面也与国际接轨,天津茱莉亚音乐学院的建设以及国际学校的入驻与发展更吸引了外国优秀人才来津发展。在环境保护方面,政府已关停9,081家对水源与空气造成严重污染的工厂,并在2017年改造、搬迁了数千家工厂以减少污染。天津正在从各个方面为提升城市竞争力积极做准备,相信在未来的报告中,我们可以看到天津城市发展的新成果与新面貌。


For over a decade, JLL has tracked the evolution of China’s cities and market trends in the real estate market. We published a series of reports, China 30 in 2007, China 40 in 2009, China 50 in 2012 and China 60 in 2015. Each of these reports was to help our clients understand with increasing depth the broad mix of cities and economies in China. Since the release of JLL’s China 60: from fast growth to smart growth, China’s economy and society have continued to develop and the country has entered a “new era” of innovation, internationalisation. China’s cities are looking outwards in greater numbers and are gradually standing on the world stage. JLL has identified 12 mainland cities in its new report China 12 that are at the forefront of this movement.

real 01Source: China 12, JLL, 2018


China’s cities have shifted towards a new development model, transforming to a more sustainable and better-suited way to growth in a globalised economy instead of only depending on high levels of investment and fast growth.


• China’s ‘Global Contenders’ – Shanghai and Beijing – unsurprisingly stand out among the China 12 on key future-proofing metrics. This duo is on track to join the elite group of the world’s most globally connected and powerful cities within the next five years. A further boost to their innovation capabilities, a deepening of their talent pools and improvements in environmental quality will help them make the next step up.


• Shenzhen is one of the key China 12 cities to watch. While Shanghai and Beijing remain ahead of the pack, Shenzhen is catching up and scores well on its ‘future-proofing’ credentials. Its ‘Enterpriser’ economy is attracting talented domestic migrants and Shenzhen’s track record of developing innovative corporates is driving the city forward.


• Fellow ‘Enterpriser’ city Guangzhou does well in both ‘traditional’ and ‘future-proofing’ measures and is prioritising R&D, biotech and IT, as well as financial services and advanced manufacturing, which will provide momentum going forward.


• Among the next set of ‘Powerhouse’ China 12 cities, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou and Wuhan are the most prominent. Benefiting from enhanced connectivity and rapidly developing business ecosystems, they are forming (with Shanghai) a truly global mega-cluster of innovation along the Yangtze River corridor.


• The remaining China 12 cities – Tianjin, Chengdu, Chongqing and Xi’an – are highly dynamic ‘Powerhouse’ economies and impressive engines of growth. They score well on ‘traditional’ measures of performance, but they will need to reposition themselves as China moves up the value chain, by cultivating and retaining talent, attracting entrepreneurs, battling pollution and supporting ‘next generation’ companies.

BT 201806 38 1BT 201806 38 2Source: China 12, JLL, 2018


Looking specifically at Tianjin, we found the city continued performing well in ‘traditional’ metrics, including total GDP, retail sales and population. Tianjin’s GDP stood at RMB 1.86 trillion, ranking No.6 after Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chongqing. The permanent population reached 15.62 million in 2016, which could largely support Tianjin’s consumption and total retail sales. As a traditional industrial city, the manufacturing industry contributed 44.8% of production in 2016. The services industry kept increasing and contributed 56.0% of GDP by 2017, although the percentage is still lower than most China 12 cities.

BT 201806 38 3

Source: China 12, JLL, 2018


Among the nine categories in JLL’s ‘future-proofing’ model, which are highlighted in the “competitiveness cobweb” graphic, Tianjin scored high in education, talent and cluster.


• Tianjin is attractive in education resources as it has many leading universities and educational institutions, such as Nankai University and Tianjin University, as well as international schools, including Wellington College, which could attract foreign professionals and executives to stay in the city with their families.


• Intercity linkages in Tianjin were also improved. The Yujiapu high-speed rail station was completed in 2015. This resulted in Beijing, Tianjin Wuqing, Tianjin Centre and the Binhai New Area being well connected with travel times of under 70 minutes and helped Tianjin better benefit from the improvement in the Jing-Jin-Ji cluster.


Tianjin scored relatively low in liveability, environment and infrastructure.


• Tianjin ranks No. 10 out of 12 cities in environment due to poor air quality in the whole Jing-Jin-Ji area. During 2017, the Tianjin government worked hard to improve the quality of the urban environment; for example, the Tianjin government closed 9,081 factories that heavily polluted water and air and reformed or relocated thousands of factories to reduce pollution in 2017. The local government is also adjusting the city’s industry structure to fundamentally solve the pollution problem.

real 04Note: Good: AQI<50; Reach to standard: AQI200
Source: Tianjin government, JLL


• In the infrastructure index, we focus on both physical and digital connectivity. Tianjin got a pretty good score in the high-speed rail index and ranked in the middle for metro network length (it was 166 km by August 2017). Tianjin saw the completion of a new metro line, the south part of Metro Line 6, in early 2018 (after the report data was collected), linking several office buildings, retail projects and major residential communities, including Galaxy International Shopping Centre, the future Dacheng Shopping Mall and the Meijiang residential catchment.


However, Tianjin got the lowest score of all the 12 cities in the measure of broadband connections, with just 185 connections per 1,000 people. Tianjin also suffered from limited international flights (only about 19 destinations), as it is so close to a bigger, more established airport in Beijing.

real 05Source: JLL ReResearch, 2018


In 2017, Tianjin GDP annual growth decelerated to 3.6%, which may upset some investors or talents working and living in the city. However, we can see many positive changes taking place beyond just the base GDP statistics.


To attract talents, the local government adjusted policies by accepting a broader range of Hukou applications. Tianjin also keeps improving infrastructure: Metro Line 5 is expected to open no later than end-2018. Together with Metro Line 6, it will form a loop around Tianjin and give residents more convenience. Several development programmes are ongoing. For example, Juilliard School, a world-leading music school, is going to open its first overseas campus in Yujiapu in late 2019. Once opened, the school is expected to welcome more talents in art and it will improve the popularity of the Yujiapu area and Tianjin. More Grade A office buildings and high-quality shopping malls are coming on stream to follow the economic growth and increase the city’s liveability.


The China 12 report named Tianjin one of China’s 12 most competitive cities, with the potential to do much more. It also highlighted some areas the city leaders should focus on to ensure Tianjin remains one of China’s most appealing places to live and do business.


For more detailed information on the China 12 and the key strengths of Tianjin and other leading cities, you could download the report via our WeChat Mini-Program.

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