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FEATURE STORY: China’s One Belt One Road Initiative Explained
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China’s One Belt One Road Initiative Explained
By Harold Murphy

Untitled 23      早在2015年3月28日,国家发展改革委、外交部、商务部就联合发布了《推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动》。 该行动的发布源于2013年9月和10月由中国国家主席习近平分别提出建设“新丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的合作倡议。 “一带一路”旨在借用古代丝绸之路的历史符号,高举和平发展的旗帜,积极发展与沿线国家的经济合作伙伴关系, 共同打造政治互信、经济融合、文化包容的利益共同体、命运共同体和责任共同体。

       “一带一路”是世界上跨度最长的经济大走廊,发端于中国,贯通中亚、东南亚、南亚、西亚乃至欧洲部分区域,东牵亚太经济圈,西系欧洲经济圈。该战略有近60个国家参与支持,其中50多个国家明确表示愿意参与“一带一路”战略。而作为“一带一路”倡议的重大先行项目,中巴经济走廊建设进展快、成效显著,两年来,已有18个项目在建或建成,总投资额达185亿美元。随着走廊项目建设逐渐进入早期收获阶段,巴基斯坦已成为展示“一带一路”成果的橱窗。

      “一带一路”开展以来,经济成果也颇为卓著。“一带一路"经济区开放后,承包工程项目突破3000个。2015年,中国国企业共对“一带一路”相关的49个国家进行了直接投资,投资额同比增长18.2%。2013年至2017年,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家货物贸易额累计超过5万亿美元,对外直接投资超过700亿美元,中国企业在沿线国家推进建设75个经贸合作区,上缴东道国的税费22亿美元,创造就业岗位21万个。


      “一带一路”的发展成果如此丰硕,那么这些项目的前期投资是从何而来的呢?国务院新闻办公室于2017年5月8日在国务院新闻办新闻发布厅举行新闻发布会,介绍了“一带一路”基础设施项目建设的资金来源的四个主要渠道。一是企业自有的资本金。二是和合作方共同出资。三是基金和当地一些资金,或者其他来源,比如说世行、亚投行、丝路基金等一些国际化的基金。四是在项目进展过程中追加或新增的投资。同时他表示,我们坚定不移地反对腐败和各种其他的国际犯罪活动,中央企业既遵守中国的法律,也遵守所在国当地的法律,更遵守国际的规则。


      “一带一路”作为全方位对外开放战略,强调共商、共建、共享原则,给21世纪的国际合作带来新的理念,更使我国的国际影响力大大提升。

Gwadar Port is considered a crucial link between the land based belt and the maritime road

Gwadar Port is considered a crucial link between the land-based belt and the maritime road

The One Belt One Road Initiative, or officially The Belt and Road Initiative as of 2016, is one of the largest mega-projects in the history of mankind, covering more than 60 countries and 40% of the world’s GDP.
 

The Belt and Road Initiative’s objective is to connect China with Eurasian countries, through the development of the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the ocean-going Maritime Silk Road (MSR). When completed, the project shall provide China with a major role in global affairs through a China-centered trading network.
 

The Belt and Road Initiative has covered infrastructural investments such as in railways and highways, power grids and energy networks, real estate and technology hubs so far, and was the most frequently mentioned system in the People’s Daily in 2016.

fs 01Percentage change of China's FDI to the countries covered by the Belt and Road Initiative

With infrastructure spending currently insufficient in most of the Asia Pacific region and Central and Eastern Europe, the Belt and Road initiative is expected to bridge the gap by providing infrastructure-driven economic growth, and many countries and heads of states expressed their interest in joining the project. According to the World Pensions Council, the Asian continent - except China - could need around $9 trillion ($9,000 billion) worth of infrastructure investments over the following 10 years. For comparison, China’s total trade volume in the countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative exceeded $3 trillion between 2014 and 2016, and created around 180,000 new jobs.
 

Geographic Structure

The Belt and Road initiative is focused around seven geographic territories, which include six continental corridors and the Maritime Silk Road. The six continental corridors include the New Eurasian Land Bridge – connecting Western China and Western Russia, the China-Mongolia-Russia Corridor, the China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor, the China-Indochina Peninsula Corridor, the China-Myanmar-Bangladesh-India Corridor, and the China-Pakistan Corridor.
 

While the China Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor are often mentioned as a part of the Belt and Road Initiative, they are officially classified as “closely related corridors”. The port of Gwadar in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor is especially important to the Belt and Road Initiative as it serves as a major link between the Maritime Silk Road and the continental corridors of the Initiative.
 

The Maritime Silk Road, on the other hand, refers to the historic Silk Road that connected China with Southeast Asia, India, Arabian Peninsula, North-Eastern Africa and finally Europe through a number of seas and the Indian Ocean. The Maritime Silk Road focuses on investments and cooperation among the mentioned regions, and was first proposed in the Indonesian Parliament in late 2013 by Xi Jinping.

fs02The Maritime Silk Road, shown in red, connects China with Oceania, India, Arabian Peninsula, north-east Africa and Europe

Loans and Development Funds

Projects and infrastructure spending planned under the Belt and Road Initiative require a substantial amount of capital to construct and realize. Foundation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was proposed around the same time as the Maritime Silk Road in late 2013, and has the main objective to raise and lend capital for infrastructure projects, improve regional cooperation and accelerate economic growth. Currently, over $160 billion of infrastructure projects are either in the process of planning or under construction. Most of the bank’s capital will be provided by Asian and Oceania countries, while China will remain the single largest stakeholder with 26% of voting rights.
 

According to Fitch Ratings, there might be problems in the way how Chinese banks control risk, primarily proved by the Chinese domestic market where banks have been known to allocate capital inefficiently to some extent. Projects under the Belt and Road initiative may therefore lead to new sub-standard asset qualities for Chinese banks. It still remains to be seen how Chinese banks will handle any potential risks associated with projects under the Initiative.
 

Besides loans provided by banks development funds will also have a role in supporting various infrastructure and energy projects. One of those funds is the Silk Road Fund, proposed by Xi Jinping in late 2014 as a development fund with the main role to directly invest in projects as opposed to lending money. In its initial plan, the Silk Road Fund had a total size of $40 billion.

A sign shows the distance from Londons Eurohub rail freight depot to some destinations as a freight train sets off with containers laden with goods from China

A sign shows the distance from London’s Eurohub rail freight depot to some destinations as a freight train sets off with containers laden with goods from China

Conclusion

The Belt and Road Initiative is a game-changer for the role of China in global affairs. According to some reports, the Belt and Road Initiative may be a springboard to extend the influence of China in Asia and the regions covered by the Initiative – at the expense of the United States. China is already a major partner of countries spanning across all continents, and has invested billions of dollars in countries from South America to Africa. In general, the Belt and Road initiative is believed to improve cooperation and economic activity in the covered countries, create new jobs and reduce infrastructure imbalances in the region.

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