No one will be able to buy a new gas-guzzling car in China by 2050, according to a recent think tank forecast.
The Beijing- and Los Angeles-based Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation predicted that China will phase out conventionally powered models by the second half of the century as new-energy vehicles (NEVs) take over the market for new cars, according to an assessment report that the think tank released Tuesday.
According to the center’s latest projections, new private internal combustion engine vehicles — those that run on gasoline or diesel — will no longer be on the market in China by 2045. And domestic manufacturers will stop making all internal combustion engine vehicles by 2050, the center predicted. By that time, gas- and diesel-powered vehicles will make up about 5% of automobiles on the road.
China has been keen to make NEVs far more prevalent as it seeks to curb its severe air pollution. Thanks to government incentives, the country has become one of the fastest-growing markets for NEVs. Sales grew rapidly over the last decade, peaking at 1.3 million in 2018 before dipping to 1.2 million last year.
There are two main ways to get individuals to buy NEVs. The first is to market small electric cars designed simply to get drivers from point A to point B. The other is to offer models priced higher than 200,000 yuan, like Tesla, which offer a more luxurious driving experience.
China released a draft plan last year that suggested raising its 2025 sales target for NEVs to 25%, but no follow-up announcement has been made.