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FOCUS: China vows carbon neutrality by 2060
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China vows carbon neutrality by 2060
中国承诺争取2060年前实现碳中和
By Monica Liu

At the United Nations General Assembly, China’s president revealed the country’s carbon neutrality target, for which it would depend on a massive increase in nuclear, wind, and solar capacity while cutting coal consumption by up to 96% between 2025 and 2060 under a first blueprint.

The roadmap for the world’s most ambitious climate goal was announced by the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy in Tsinghua University, Beijing. It predicts solar capacity to grow by 587%, wind by 346%, nuclear by 382%, hydropower by 50%, and bioenergy by 100% by 2060. Coal consumption is expected to fall by 96%, gas by 75%, and oil by 65%.

China is looking at incorporating the 2060 target in its next five-year plan for 2021–2025. The plan also involves China increasing its share of non-fossil energy up to 20% by 2025.

China’s nuclear power generation will be boosted by as much as four times between 2025 and 2060 if the plan succeeds. This also means that China will probably have several plants, more than twice the number in the U.S., which currently has the most. The 2060 long-term target is estimated to cost a total of ¥100 trillion.

China’s pledge is considered to be the most important global climate policy announcement made in years. The long-term target plays a vital role in achieving the net-zero emissions global economy goal around mid-century, with China accounting for about one-quarter of global carbon emissions.

Even if China did not emit any carbon at all, it would still be placed among the top five nations currently accountable for global warming due to its emissions of other gases such as methane, and this was recognized as one of the biggest issues in the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, even with that matter unaddressed, China echoes Climate Action Tracker’s conclusion that the announcement of China’s carbon neutrality target is the biggest single advance since the Paris Agreement.

This announcement also calls for an emerging climate alliance between China and the European Union which will also lead to shaping global investment.

The net-zero commitment would require China to speed-up the reduction of coal, oil, and gas usage, building renewables, electric cars, and maybe nuclear reactors faster, and switching international investments from coal to clean.

Emissions from China continued to rise in 2018 and 2019, even as much of the world began to shift away from fossil fuels. As a country which currently burns half the world’s coal, China’s announcement sends a clear warning to domestic stakeholders that the coal-dominant era is ending, and that a prosperous China will be driven by green and low-carbon development.

The announcement also increases the pressure internationally on other major emitters to update their nationally determined contributions and establish long-term carbon neutrality targets.

This significant move will be an economic win, not just for China but also for the global economy. The massive investments required to achieve this target would increase China’s GDP by as much as 5% later this decade, with an ongoing positive impact due to reduced fossil fuel imports.

Coal is both the biggest challenge and an opportunity. The carbon-heavy fuel accounted for about 66% of electricity generation and 58% of China’s total energy consumption last year. Coal is also used to heat buildings in coal-producing regions. Recent advances in renewable energy have made replacing coal easier than cutting oil use in transportation and emissions from farm fields and livestock.

Even though China is still a net importer of fossil fuels, it has already dramatically increased its renewable energy manufacturing. It now accounts for two-thirds of the world’s photovoltaic panels and lithium-ion batteries, and 45% of its wind turbines, which already indicates the delivery of the country’s promise.

The announcement has been taken as a death toll for fossil fuels and as a turning point for fossil markets. This could mean China’s giant national oil companies will be given a government mandate to divert resources towards decarbonization with oil and natural gas, which would change the landscape for petroleum markets permanently and complement the shift being driven nearly completely by oil majors.

China’s decisions would play a vital role in shaping how the rest of the world progresses with its transition away from the fossil fuels, not just as the world's biggest emitter but also as the biggest energy financier and biggest market.

中国国家主席在第七十五届联合国大会一般性辩论上宣布,中国将提高国家自主贡献力度,采取更加有力的政策和措施,二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。在计划之下,中国将大规模增加核能、风能和太阳能发电能力,同时在2025年至2060年间将煤炭消耗量削减96%。这个是世界上最雄心勃勃的目标之一,由北京清华大学能源、环境与经济研究所宣布和发起的。预计到2060年,太阳能发电量将增长587%,风能发电量将增长346%,核能发电量将增长382%,水力发电量将增长50%,生物能源将增长100%。煤炭消耗量预计将下降96%,天然气将下降75%,石油将下降65%。中国正在考虑将2060年的目标纳入2021-2025年的下一个五年计划。该计划还包括到2025年,中国将其非化石能源的份额提高到20%。如果该计划成功,中国的核能发电量将在2025年至2060年间提高4倍。这也意味着,中国可能拥有足够的核电站,其规模将是目前世界上最大的美国舰队的两倍多。2060年的长期目标估计将耗资100万亿日元。中国的承诺被认为是近年来全球气候政策最重要的一次。这一长期目标,在本世纪中叶实现全球经济净零排放方面发挥着至关重要的作用,中国的碳排放量约占全球碳排放量的四分之一。本文为您解读中国2060年前实现碳中的愿景。

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