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China will return to NORMAL when COVID-19 fatality rate drops to 0.1%
Published on: 2021-12-06
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Chinese top respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan has responded to the question on when China can return to normalcy, proposing two prerequisites - if fatality rate of COVID-19 drops to around 0.1%, and when R0 (R naught), which is the basic reproduction number also known as basic reproduction ratio, is between 1 and 1.5.
 

To this end, the whole population in China must take vaccination and establish herd immunity, the normalized community mass prevention and control must be carried out, and an effective treatment should be developed, Zhong said at the 2nd Greater Bay Area (Shenzhen) Vaccine Summit on Saturday.
 

Since March last year, China has been able to control the coronavirus as it adopted the strong control, and the zero-case policy, said Zhong. In the past 20 months, "We have been the best in all aspects including economic recovery and resumption of work and school", he said, noting that some countries are also learning from China's strategy.
 

Zhong pointed out that there are two prerequisites to return to normalcy. First, the fatality rate should go down from the current one percent to 0.1 percent, which is basically the level of influenza. The second is if R0 (R naught), which is the basic reproduction number also known as basic reproduction ratio or rate, is between 1 and 1.5.
 

At present, 1.125 billion people in China have completed full vaccination, accounting for 79.76 percent of the total. "The case fatality rate of Delta virus outbreaks in Guangzhou and Nanjing this year was zero, which has a lot to do with higher vaccination rates there," he said. Now the country should step up vaccination for the elderly people, he noted.
 

Although the vaccine has an obvious effect on Covid prevention, especially in the prevention of severe cases, Zhong said, adding that whether inactivated vaccine or mRNA vaccine, humoral immune function decreased significantly after the first half of a full vaccination, so countries are discussing how to strengthen immunity. In China, 96.312 million people have received booster shots, according to the medical expert.
 

恢复常态化有2个前提!但目前还不满足……

4日,在第二届大湾区(深圳)疫苗峰会上,钟南山院士对涉及疫情的相关问题给出了自己的最新判断。多个话题冲上热搜,引发关注。
 

我们如何能够恢复常态化?钟南山提出,这有两个前提:一是病死率要下降到约等于0.1%,基本是流感的水平,但目前还在1%以上;二是复制指数,大约在1-1.5之间。
 

为此,在防控措施上,必须坚持三条:全民接种疫苗,建立群体免疫;社区群防群控常态化;研发有效的治疗药物。
 

具体到中国,钟南山透露,目前全国完成全程接种的人群已达到11.25亿人,占比已达79.76%。他强调,“今年在广州、南京发生的德尔塔病毒疫情,病死率都是零,这跟接种疫苗很有关系。现在的问题是,加强对老年人,特别是70岁以上人群的接种。”

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