A report on China’s population development was released by the YuWa Population Research think tank on Friday, in which it made predictions about population trends, as the country faces population downward pressure and has introduced various policies to bolster the fertility rate.
The think tank was established by a group of demographers and economists, including economics professor at Peking University Liang Jianzhang.
In 2022, the population in the Chinese mainland registered first negative growth in 61 years, decreasing by 850,000 year-on-year to 1.4118 billion, data released in January by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
The number of births was 9.56 million with the birth rate standing at 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2022, the lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, data from the NBS showed.
However, the number of new births could return to more than 10 million by 2030, as long as there are sufficient economic incentives, according to Liang.
It is estimated that if the country implements various effective policies to fully encourage birthrate, it’s possible to raise the fertility rate to 1.4, which is close to the average fertility rate in developed countries, Liang said during a press briefing on Friday. Under this condition, there will be 10.62 million new births in 2030 and the total population is expected to stand at 1.29 billion in 2050, according to the report.
Observers have said that the negative growth of population is the inevitable result of the country’s long-term low fertility rate, however, its demographic dividend will not disappear.