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Inflation in China Stays Above Comfort Zone
Published on: 2011-03-11
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SHANGHAI — China said Friday that consumer prices had risen sharply again in February, suggesting that the government may have a difficult time taming inflation this year.

The consumer price index, the broadest measure of inflation, rose 4.9 percent in February from the same month a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That jump was slightly above economists’ estimates and identical to the rise in January.

Fueled by heavy bank lending and massive infrastructure projects, China’s economic boom has resulted in soaring food and housing prices and growing public anxiety.

Aware of the threat to social stability, Beijing has made fighting inflation a top priority this year and set a goal of keeping the inflation rate at 4 percent.

With inflation rising sharply over the course of last year, from about 1.5 percent in January to as high as 5.1 percent in November, the government ordered state banks to restrain lending and raise interest rates.

Beijing also offered aid and subsidies to farmers.

But the first two months of this year have already seen prices rise 4.9 percent from a year ago. Economists say they expect food and commodity prices to continue to climb early this year.

"Inflation remains at an elevated level and it has not peaked yet,” said Wang Qing, an economist at Morgan Stanley based in Hong Kong. “We think inflation will rebound in April or May and peak mid year.”

Mr. Wang said, however, that the government’s efforts to fight inflation may begin to pay off in the last part of the year, and eventually bring inflation down to 4 percent.

But for now, the public is anxious about food and housing prices that are rising much faster than incomes. And with saving deposit rates in China kept unusually low by state-run banks, many people are seeing the value of their money erode, essentially resulting in negative returns.

For instance, inflation rose by about 3.3 percent last year, according to the consumer price index. But much of the year state banks were paying deposit rates of 2 percent or less.

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