The rebound in China's economic growth is likely to have driven up the GDP growth rate to 7.7 percent in 2012 and it will be higher than 8 percent this year, stoking expectations of inflation and a shrinking trade surplus, a top government think tank said on Monday.
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"This rebound impetus may remain until the fourth quarter according to leading economic indicators that showed a recovery in domestic investment, especially in infrastructure construction and the property market," said Zhang Yongjun, an economist with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.
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A stronger price increase trend may appear in the coming months in response to expanding domestic demand, raising the consumer price index to as much as 4 percent year-on-year in 2013, up from 2.6 percent in 2012, Zhang said.
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Crdit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank released a report on Monday that said that the eurozone economy is likely to remain weak this year.
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"Major central banks are expected to maintain and expand quantitative easing while the European Central Bank lowers policy interest rates."
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Zhang said: "Excessive market liquidity will lift up global commodity prices and will add to inflationary pressure in China in the short term."
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Another potential risk for China stems mainly from a lack of investment funds, according to Zhang. The addition of capital sources is still not matching the increase in investment, which requires stronger fiscal support and broader financial channels.
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The bureau plans to release the GDP growth rate for the past three months and the whole of 2012 on Friday.
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Underpinned by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, China's GDP growth is likely to rebound to 8 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2012, up from the 14-quarter low of 7.4 percent seen during the July-to-September period, said Wendy Chen, an economist with Nomura International (HK) Ltd.
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This rebound is supported by a modest improvement in exports and inventory destocking is coming to an end, according to Chen.
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Nomura predicted the industrial output growth rate may climb to 10.6 percent in December from 10.1 percent in November. Fixed-asset investment is likely to rise to 20.8 percent year-on-year in December compared with November's 20.7 percent.
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In addition, retail sales may have increased by 15.6 percent in December, up from November's 14.9 percent, the Japanese securities company said.