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LAST WORDS: Horizon and Great Walls
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Horizon and Great Walls
By Bill Garner

BT 201908 LAST 09Lately, when I meet people that I know from long time ago, I get the weird feeling that we don’t need to say anything to know our thoughts. It is common to us, the situation that we are passing, but at the same time, it is different. No new words to say, but we know that it is coming the time of uncertainty that normally comes after few years, and especially when western countries are closer to a crisis, that I guess will happen again soon.


BT 201908 LAST 07We ask many questions, but we don’t answer anyone directly. We know the possibility that happening of what we are predicting is high, but we are also having doubts that this time things are not going in the right direction. Usually, decisions are taking under some predictable bases and we can perceive that there is something that it is going on to change the situation. We also know the country has enough resources to use to keep the stability and provide a horizon for future development.

This time is a bit different, because we can see a large number of people with very good local and foreign education and proficient English level that we can share points of view with, but we could not talk about some topics as usually. We still have a barrier that we can not cross.

I know many factories are closed or in the process of closing. People are not optimistic, but they don’t feel afraid, as they are used to change and find their way. They feel protected in some way from the measures that the government is taking or will take in the near future.

BT 201908 LAST 04我知道许多工厂已关闭或正在关闭。人们并不乐观,但他们并不感到害怕,因为他们习惯于改变并找到自己的方式。他们在某种程度上受到政府采取或将在不久的将来采取的措施的保护。

I know also many office buildings with occupancy less than 50% and tenants affected by the lower demand, that still keeping the same premise type and size because the building owner maintain or reduce the rental price, which makes them hesitate to move out. But in any case, the low occupancy is already an important point to worry about.

BT 201908 LAST 08We are aware of the efforts to make this situation change, but we also know the international environment doesn’t help to change. We are not in the same trends of previous years. China was benefited from strong inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). FDI has performed strongly in the last decade, with record inflows of USD 118 billion in 2013, thereby becoming the second largest recipient of foreign investment. Among the cities and countries that invest more in China are Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan, and the United States. In addition, China’s outward investment soared in recent years and it could become a net exporter of capital in the coming years.


BT 201908 LAST 02The government remains committed to supporting the economy via fiscal stimulus and an accommodative monetary policy, which makes the risks still skewed to the downside. The economy growing in 2019 seems to be in the path of the forecast of 6.3%, and probably 2020 will be between 5.5%-6%. We will soon see the grow come to lower positions, and closer to other western countries. A 3%-5% GDP grow will bring a new and interesting period and see how it is possible to manage the country under this new environment.

政府仍然致力于通过财政刺激和宽松的货币政策来支持经济,这使得风险仍然倾向于下行。 2019年的经济增长似乎处于预测的6.3%,而2020年可能会在5.5%-6%之间。我们很快就会看到增长率降低,并且更接近其他西方国家。 GDP增长3%-5%将带来一个新的有趣时期,看看在这种新环境下如何管理这个国家。

BT 201908 LAST 11The second quarter of 2019, China Economy is slowing again to a year annual growth of 6.2%, the country’s weakest expansion in 30 years. But, for such a big economy this growth rate is impressive. The question for the coming months is whether the domestic strength will remain sufficient to offset the trade problems, and foreign companies are convinced to stay and don’t shift more operations away from China.


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