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China approaches herd immunity with 50% of population vaccinated
Published on: 2021-07-15
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China has administered more than 1.4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines, covering about half of its 1.4 billion population as of Tuesday, citing data from the National Health Commission.
 

China has maintained a rate of administering roughly 100 million doses a week since May following some small-scale outbreaks. For example, it took nine days from July 4 to July 13 for the number to grow from 1.3 to 1.4 billion and six days from June 28 to July 4 to grow from 1.2 to 1.3 billion.
 

The speed peaked at 100 million per five days when the number grew from 900 million to 1 billion from June 14-19 as well as 1 billion to 1.1 billion from June 19-24.
 

China's top respiratory disease specialist, Zhong Nanshan, estimated the speed would be even faster in the second half of 2021.
 

According to Zhong, if vaccine efficacy is 70 percent, then for China the vaccination rate should reach 83.3 percent of the population to build herd immunity, whereas around the world, the rate should be 89.2 percent. For Asia and Europe, the rates should reach 80.2 percent and 96.2 percent, respectively.
 

With a vaccine efficacy of 80 percent, 72.9 percent of the people in China should be vaccinated to reach herd immunity, while the figure should be 78 percent globally, 70.2 percent for Asia and 84.2 percent for Europe, according to the statistics that Zhong presented.
 

全国新冠疫苗接种剂次超14亿!
中国疫苗接种率至少需达72.9%方可实现群体免疫

截至2021年7月13日,31个省(自治区、直辖市)和新疆生产建设兵团累计报告接种新冠病毒疫苗140201.9万剂次。
 

从各地来看,疫苗接种率也在迅速提升。
 

例如,在北京,截至7月13日,全市累计报告接种新冠病毒疫苗达到3581.60万剂次,累计接种1847.10万人。这其中,有1745.40万人完成全程接种,全市18岁及以上常住人口的接种率为94.86%,全程接种率89.64%。
 

在山东,截至7月11日24时,全省累计接种新冠病毒疫苗突破1亿剂次,达到10129.08万剂次,5686.49万人完成第一剂次接种,4342.38万人完成全程接种,18岁以上人群接种比例突破70%,其中60岁及以上老年人接种比例突破50%。
 

在新冠疫苗人群覆盖率位居全国前列的海南,截至6月底,海南新冠病毒疫苗全程2剂次接种人数突破680万。18岁以上人群两剂次疫苗覆盖率达88.5%,全人群两剂次疫苗覆盖率达67.8%。
 

钟南山表示,假设新冠疫苗保护率达到80%,中国至少需要72.9%的疫苗接种率才能实现群体免疫。


钟南山指出,达到群体免疫所需的疫苗接种率与疫苗保护率(即接种后多大比例不会再感染)和病毒可复制指数(又称R0,衡量病毒传播速率的重要指数)有关。中国实际测算的R0指数为2.4,低于世界平均的2.66;但即便在这种情况下,假设疫苗保护率能达到比较理想的80%,中国也需要72.9%的接种率才能达成群体免疫。


钟南山表示,根据各地测算的R0指数不同,要达成群体免疫,假设疫苗的保护率是70%,全球需要89.2%的疫苗接种率,中国需要83.3%,亚洲需要80.2%,欧洲则需要96.2%;假设疫苗的保护率是80%,全球需要78%的疫苗接种率,中国需要72.9%,亚洲需要70.2%,欧洲则需要84.2%。

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