Home  Contact Us
  Follow Us On:
 
Search:
Advertising Advertising Free Newsletter Free E-Newsletter
NEWS

IMF cuts 2022 global growth forecast to 3.6%
Published on: 2022-04-20
Share to
User Rating: / 0
PoorBest 

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday downgraded the outlook for the world economy this year and next, blaming Russia's war in Ukraine for disrupting global commerce, pushing up oil prices, threatening food supplies and increasing uncertainty already heightened by the coronavirus and its variants.
 

The 190-country lender cut its forecast for global growth to 3.6% this year, a steep falloff from 6.1% last year and from the 4.4% growth it had expected for 2022 back in January. It also said it expects the world economy to grow 3.6% again next year, slightly slower than the 3.8% it forecast in January.
 

The war — and the darkening outlook — came just as the global economy appeared to be shaking off the impact of the highly infectious omicron variant.
 

Now, the IMF expects Russia’s economy — battered by sanctions — to shrink 8.5% this year and Ukraine’s 35%.
 

U.S. economic growth is expected to drop to 3.7% this year from 5.7% in 2021, which had been the fastest growth since 1984. The new forecast marks a downgrade from the 4% the IMF had predicted at the beginning of the year. Hobbling U.S. growth this year will be Federal Reserve interest rate increases, meant to combat resurgent inflation, and an economic slowdown in key American trading partners.
 

Europe, heavily dependent on Russian energy, will bear the brunt of the economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war. For the 19 countries that share the euro currency, the IMF forecasts collective growth of 2.8% in 2022, down sharply from the 3.9% it expected in January and from 5.3% last year.
 

The IMF expects the growth of the Chinese economy, the world’s second biggest, to decelerate to 4.4% this year from 8.1% in 2021. Beijing’s zero-COVID strategy has meant draconian lockdowns in bustling commercial cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen.
 

Some commodity-exporting countries, benefiting from the rising price of raw materials, are likely to defy the trend toward slower growth. For example, the IMF raised its growth forecast for oil producer Nigeria — to 3.4% this year from the 2.7% the fund said it expected back in January.
 

The world economy had bounced back with surprising strength from 2020’s brief but brutal coronavirus recession. But the rebound presented problems of its own: Caught by surprise, businesses scrambled to meet a surge in customer orders, which overwhelmed factories, ports and freight yards. The result: long shipping delays and higher prices.
 

The IMF forecasts a 5.7% jump in consumer prices in the world’s advanced economies this year, the most since 1984. In the United States, inflation is running at a four-decade high.
 

Central banks are raising interest rates to counter rising prices, a move that could choke off economic growth. By driving up prices of oil, natural gas and other commodities, the Russia-Ukraine war has made their task of fighting inflation while preserving the economic recovery even trickier.
 

IMF下调2022年全球经济增长预期至3.6%

当地时间19日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》,预计2022年全球经济将增长3.6%,较1月份预测值下调0.8个百分点。
 

IMF表示,受俄乌冲突影响,IMF大幅调低2022年全球经济增长预期至3.6%。IMF预计2023年全球经济将增长3.6%,较此前预测值下调0.2个百分点。
 

具体来看,发达经济体2022年预计将增长3.3%,较此前预测值下调0.6个百分点;2023年预计将增长2.4%,较此前预测值下调0.2个百分点。新兴市场和发展中经济体2022年预计将增长3.8%,较此前预测值下调1个百分点;2023年将增长4.4%,较此前预测值下调0.3个百分点。
 

主要经济体中,美国经济今明两年预计将分别增长3.7%和2.3%;欧元区经济将分别增长2.8%和2.3%;中国经济将分别增长4.4%和5.1%。
 

IMF在报告中说,由于俄乌冲突引发人道主义危机和西方对俄制裁,将导致2022年全球经济增速显著放缓。俄乌冲突通过大宗商品市场、贸易和金融渠道产生全球溢出效应,在削弱经济增长的同时,也将加剧通胀。为应对通胀高企,全球多个经济体加息,导致投资者降低风险偏好、全球金融条件收紧。此外,低收入国家新冠疫苗短缺可能导致新一轮疫情暴发。

Comments (0)Add Comment

Write comment

security code
Write the displayed characters


busy
    Subscription    |     Advertising    |     Contact Us    |
Address: Magnetic Plaza, Building A4, 6th Floor, Binshui Xi Dao.
Nankai District. 300381 TIANJIN. PR CHINA
Tel: +86 22 23917700
E-mail: webmaster@businesstianjin.com
Copyright 2022 BusinessTianjin.com. All rights reserved.