Copper may fall on speculation figures for imports of the metal last month into China, the world’s biggest consumer, might signal tepid demand, a survey showed.
Eight of 16 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg, or 50 percent, said prices will drop next week. Five predicted a gain and three expected little change. Copper for delivery in three months was up 3.4 percent for this week at $9,682 a metric ton at 5 p.m. yesterday on the London Metal Exchange.
Chinese imports of copper and products in February were the lowest since January 2009 at 235,469 tons, customs data showed last month. That was a 35 percent drop from January. Figures for March shipments are scheduled for release on April 10, according to a calendar compiled by Bloomberg.
"I don’t think they’ll be as weak as February, but they’re not going to be great on a year-over-year basis,” Bart Melek, an analyst at TD Securities in Toronto, said of March deliveries.
The red bars on the attached chart are derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling the majority of respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the copper price. The survey data shown are as of April 1.
The weekly copper survey has forecast prices accurately in 63 of the past 131 weeks, or 48 percent of the time.
